A statistical impossibility

This is the question that so-called ‘futurists’ are trying to answer. Because the first year of the second decade of the second millennium has just begun, and because we are advancing toward a technological singularity, these are extremely turbulent times of rapid (technological) advances. Is this really happening? Yes! Technological advances happen much more quickly every time, and this will continue to happen. Futurist Ray Kurzweil explains this with an example:

When I was an MIT undergraduate in 1965, we all shared a computer that took up half a building and cost tens of millions of dollars. The computer in my pocket today is a million times cheaper and a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion-fold increase in the amount of computation per dollar since I was a student.

Also, keep in mind Moore’s Law, which claims that the amount of transistors on CPU’s doubles every 18 to 24 months. Until now, this law has been true, and according to experts, will remain true for some time.
So, let’s look at some predictions made by several futurists, shall we? Let’s take a look at the next decade.

The decade according to Jack Uldrich

These are some of the predictions done by Jack Uldridge, who manages the web site Jump the Curve. He is a known futurist, author and speaker, hired by lots and lots of companies to speak at conferences and such. For more info about him, was well as hit – very interesting – blog posts, go to his web site.

Among others, Jack predicts the cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to $1,000 or lower. This allows Average Joe to have his genome sequenced and will lead to personalized medical treatment and medicine based on the patient’s genes.
Furthermore, he predicts doctors will be able to operate people over the internet using robots. This will allow a specialist to operate a patient in another country without having to gly that specialist over, which is expensive. Also, brain-neural interfaces will be introduced leading to a myriad of possibilities.

To 2020; what lies on the horizon, if it were up to Ray Kurzweil

Ray Kurzweil, a ‘top futurist’, has done some predictions about the next decade as well. Let’s take a look at what the next decade has in store for us according to this man, shall we?

Memory devices will be in our clothing, and the meaning of ‘smartphone’ will transform. Instead of looking at a tiny screen, images will be projected directly on our retinas, providing an image as large as our field of view. We can expect information about things around us to be displayed on this, essentially implementing augmented reality. The Internet will make sure we can see the latest information on our screens, as well as new forms of advertising, such as floating ads in mid-air, streamed through the Internet by companies such as Google (the part about floating ads I added, but it isn’t a far stretch). We’ll watch movies and read books in this new virtual playground.
Renewable energy will take a dive and solar power costs will decrease, making it a viable – and affordable – means of producing clean energy. Other than that, our ‘software’, our base DNA, will be able to be ‘updated’; to live longer, and to reduce or remove decease and cancer.

Stay sober

Now, such wild predictions have been done for decades. Remember the ‘a fully functional humanoid robot in every household by the year 2000′? That hasn’t happened, an I suspect many of the things mentioned above will not, or to a lesser degree, happen as well. But is is important to keep in mind the technological singularity; technological advances happen quicker and quicker, and maybe in 2020 I look back at this post (assuming it still exists somewhere) and look at the ignorance of these futurists; who knows.
The next decade will without a doubt be an interesting one, with lots and lots of futuristic discoveries and new technologies emerging. To close, here are five of my predictions for the next decade:

1. Google will grow even larger;
2. We will still use fossil fuels for at least 50% of energy production, and most cars will still run on them;
3. Exciting new technologies to increase the welfare of entire counties, and even the world – for example, fields of solar panels to produce clean energy – will still not happen because of the bureaucracy and ‘budgetary constraints’;
4. Kids will still run around with guns and education will not be available for everyone;
5. And maybe one positive point; experimental UCAV’s (Unmanned Combat Areal Vehicles) will reduce the casualties of war (mostly for the United States though).

Maybe it’s a bleak view, but I’d love to be proven wrong.

What are your predictions for the decade? Comment and share your vision!